Tag Archives: mvp

30 Years of Dubious Comparisons

The General Idea: To look back at the Finals MVP’s of the past 30 NBA Championship Teams and try to calculate, using highly questionable tactics, their career success rates.

The Specifics:
• Every year of a players career counts for one point.
• Years that include a Playoff appearance add an extra 1/2 point.
• Finals appearances count for a full point.
• Championships count for two added points.
(Because Championships are what they play for, right?)
• The last 30 years have been broken down into 10 year units, with an extra 1/2 point being awarded to Championships won while playing in the more successful Conference.
(The last 20 years belong to the West, the East has a higher Finals win total in one of the 10 year units)
• The official MVP is not, in every instance, TheLongTalks MVP.
(There are only 5 switches and the official MVP is noted in those cases)

An Example:
Player X: 16 Years (YR) | 16 Playoff Years ÷ 2 (PY) | 7 Finals Appearance (FA) | 7 Championships x 2 (WIN) 6 Bonus Points ÷ 2 (BP) Total 48

Finals MVP Success Rates:

Boris Diaw:  YR 12 | PY 7÷2 | FA 2 | WIN 1×2 | BP 1÷2 … Total 20* (Actual MVP Kawhi Leonard)

2 x MVP** LeBron James:  YR 12 | PY 9÷2 | FA 5 | WIN 2×2 | BP 0÷2 … Total 21.5*

Dirk Nowitzki:  YR 17 | PY 13÷2 | FA 2 | WIN 1×2 | BP 1÷2 … Total 28*

2 x MVP** Kobe Bryant:  YR 19 | PY 15÷2 | FA 7 | WIN 5×2 | BP 5÷2 … Total 36*

Paul Pierce:  YR 17 | PY 11÷2 | FA 2 | WIN 1×2 | BP 0÷2 … Total 26.5*

Tony Parker:  YR 14 | PY 13÷2 | FA 5 | WIN 4×2 | BP 4÷2 … Total 35.5*

The NBA’s Referees: They’ve been there since the beginning and this year was there year to shine. (Actual MVP Dwayne Wade)

3 x MVP** Tim Duncan:  YR 18 | PY 17÷2 | FA 6 | WIN 5×2 | BP 4÷2 … Total 44.5*

Rasheed Wallace:  YR 16 | PY 14÷2 | FA 3 | WIN 1×2 | BP 0÷2 … Total 28 (Actual MVP Chauncey Billups)

3 x MVP** Shaq:  YR 19 | PY 17÷2 | FA 6 | WIN 4×2 | BP 3÷2 … Total 43

6 x MVP** Michael Jordan:  YR 15 | PY 13÷2 | FA 6 | WIN 6×2 | BP 3÷2 … Total 41

2 x MVP** Hakeem Olajuwon:  YR 18 | PY 15÷2 | FA 2 | WIN 2×2 | BP 1÷2 … Total 32

2 x MVP** Isiah Thomas:  YR 13 | PY 9÷2 | FA 3 | WIN 2×2 | BP 2÷2 … Total 25.5 (Actual MVP for 1 of the 2 years, Joe Dumars)

2 x MVP** Magic Johnson:  YR 13 | PY 13÷2 | FA 9*** | WIN 5×2 | BP 3÷2 … Total 38 (Actual MVP for 1 of the 2 years, James Worthy)

Larry Bird:  YR 13 | PY 12÷2 | FA 5*** | WIN 3×2 | BP 1÷2 … Total 30.5

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar:  YR 20 | PY 18÷2 | FA 10*** | WIN 6×2 | BP 0÷2 … Total 51!

Final Thoughts:
• It’s pretty impressive that Magic had 9 Finals appearance to go with his 5 Wins
• It takes a little bit of Googling to find out how many Finals Larry Bird lost. Plus, his career stats don’t appear to be listed on ESPN’s website.
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar does not get enough talk in talks about Greatest Player to Ever Play the Game. His 51 is the highest number by a good margin. That man was a basketball playing machine. TheLongTalk’s theory is that he seems to be a bit of a grump and that’s keeping people from loving his career the way they loved MJ’s and Magics.
• Player X, the example listed at the beginning of this insanely long post, is a real player that never won a Finals MVP… but had some pretty Big Shots. Any guesses on who he might be?
• If you see any problems with TheLongTalk’s math, let TLT know.


*Active Player  ** Within the last 30 years  *** Including Finals appearances outside of the 30 year window

NFL Mid-season Awards

Before the NFL season I made some preseason picks, which don’t look to be turning out too well.   So here is my revised mid-season awards for the NFL.

MVP – I might have had the right division for this winner, the AFC South, but the wrong team.  I went with Matt Schaub to have a breakout year, lead the Texans to a wildcard birth and put up MVP numbers and win the award.  Looks like I am going to be 0-1 so far with my picks.  It looks like Peyton Manning might take home another MVP award, though, #12 does not think he should.  If Philips Rivers turns the Chargers around and they make the playoffs he will be the MVP, however at 4-5 I can’t give it to him now.  And considering only three MVP awards have not gone to a QB or RB it would be foolish not to pick a QB or RB.  But maybe I’m feeling foolish, so right now #12’s NFL MVP pick is Troy Polamalu of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Has he had the best statistical year? No.  But he does allow the best defense in the league (123 points allowed, least in the league) to do things that no other defense can do.  Steelers are the best team in the league, the defense is the best part of the Steelers, and Polamalu is the best player on the Pittsburgh defense because of what he allows them to do.  It won’t happen by seasons’ end, but Polamalu is my MVP of the league to this point.  If the MVP is the best player (or most dignifcant) on the best team the MVP should go to Polamalu, but it won’t.

Projected preseason picks: 0-1

Defensive MVP – Clay Matthews of the Green Bay Packers is the popular pick but he is not my pick.  He is my #3ish right now, but not my number #1.  My preseason pick, San Francisco linebacker Patrick Willis, has about zero percent of winning this award, so it looks like my preseason picks will go 0-2 so far.  My defensive MVP right now is Washington Redskins defensive back DeAngelo Hall.  He singlehandedly beat the Chicago Bears with 4 interceptions in one game and returned one pick for a TD and the Redskins won by 3.  The game against Dallas he stripped Tashard Choice of the ball , recovered the fumble and returned it for a TD right before the half to give the Redskins a 7-3 lead going into the half against Dallas.  While an argument could be made for Matthews, a much better argument can be made for Hall being the Defensive MVP to this point in the season.

Projected preseason picks: 0-2

Offensive Player of the Year – Again, my preseason pick of Adrian Peterson looks to be wrong.  I think for the first time ever this award will go to a Tight End, Anatino Gates of the San Diego Chargers.  Gates has 663 yards receiving, 40 receptions, and is tied for the league lead with 9 TD catches, oh yeah, and he just missed a game.  Gates should return after the Chargers bye week and be fine and keep putting up the numbers he has been all season.  The guy throwing to him, Philip Rivers, could win this award if he goes over 5,000 yards passing and 35 TD passes, but methinks he won’t go over those numbers and Gates, who should win, will win.

Projected preseason picks: 0-3

Offensive Rookie of the Year – This is one is easy, too easy and I got it wrong at the beginning of the season.  I wanted to go with Sam Bradford, but I listened to all the “experts” talk about how good Ryan Matthews would be (note to self: never listen to the “experts” again) so I went with Matthews over Bradford.  I should have went with Bradford because he will win, as he should and he is my midseason offensive rookie of the year winner.  Javad Best of the Lions could give him a run for his money if he finishes strong, but I doubt he will and the Rams in the playoff hunt gives the end to Bradford.  If the Browns keep winning McCoy could make some noise, but do really expect the Browns to keep winning?  Bradford is my pick here.

Projected preseason picks: 0-4

Defensive Rookie of the Year – I think this pick, safety Eric Berry of the Kansas City Chiefs, is the best chance I have of getting a preseason pick right.  Berry has 45 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 2 interceptions, and 2 sacks for the first place Chiefs.  Again, being in the playoff race will be good for drawing attention to Berry to help him win this award.  However, some of the abovementioned “experts” would not agree with me as some say that Ndomnikan Suh of the Detroit Lions is already the best interior defensive lineman in the NFL.  Suh has good stats with 30 tackles, 0 forced fumbles, 1 interception, and 6.5 sacks.  This is good, but with the Lions (still) losing it could take away from votes when Berry might be going to the playoffs with the Chiefs.  Another possibility is surprise Philadelphia Eagles safety Nate Allen who has 34 tackles, 0 forced fumbles, 3 interceptions, and 1 sack.  I’m not a college football guy and without looking it up I could not tell you where Nate Allen played college ball and the sheer surprise factor might just push him into winning the defensive rookie of the year, and the Eagles get far more media coverage than the Lions or the Chiefs which is good for Allen’s chances.  However, Suh gets by far the most media coverage of the three and the smart would put his money on Suh.  But I’m feeling lucky and really don’t want to have an O-fer in the inaugural preseason picks by #12 on carguments.com so I’m sticking with my pick of Berry and hoping for the best.

Projected Preseason picks: 1-5

Yes that’s right, according to my own projections I should be 1 of 5 on my major preseason.  Dang, .200 is not even a good baseball average.  Anyways, on to my pick to who will win the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Pick – My preseason pick to win the Super Bowl was the Vikings.  My desire to see Favre (possibly) go out (who knows he might be back next year) on top overtook any logical pick that I might have made.  And you know, my desire has not changed and neither has my pick.  The Vikings are 3-5 right now, they will finish 10-6 and make the wildcard round of the playoffs and, because this is how sports work, I would not be surprised if they played Randy Moss and the Tennessee Titans in the Super Bowl.  However, I’m not going with the Titans in the AFC.  I’ll go Vikings VS. Steelers in the Super Bowl.  With the winner being the Minnesota Vikings! (Here is to hoping, not logic)