New Big 3 on the West Coast 4

Maybe I’m missing something, but I believe I was scoffed at when I previously mentioned the possibility of Carmelo and LeBron going to Los Angeles next year to usher in a new era of Laker Legends.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/17/report-the-lakers-want-to-chase-lebron-and-melo-next-summer-is-that-news/

NBC Sports is reporting on the possibility, ESPN is reporting on it, Bleacher Report is reporting on it, and I had already mentioned the possibility long ago. Thank you everyone for finally catching up.

Probability is less than 50% but everyone is talking about it, and for good reason. It is possible.

4 thoughts on “New Big 3 on the West Coast

  1. Reply TheLongTalk Jul 18, 2013 4:37 pm

    …when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?

    It is not impossible for the Lakers to land Melo. (30% chance)

    It is not impossible for the Lakers to get James. (4% chance)

    It is not impossible for the Lakers to grab both Melo and James (.075%)

    It’s just very improbable.

  2. Reply Original6 Jul 18, 2013 6:01 pm

    Those statistics are probably glaringly similar to what people thought of the first big 3, or the second big 3.

    Who would have thought Karl Malone would ever leave the Jazz to go to the Lakers? Or Gary Patyon leaving the Sonics to go to Seattle? Or Shaq getting traded to Miami? Or how about the simple fact that these “improbable” sports transactions happen all the time. A-Rod over 200 million dollars, Randy Moss to the Patriots, Jerry Rice to the Raiders, Wayne Gretzky and all his transactions. Point is those improbable trades are more probable than improbable simply because we write them off.

    Do not be floored if LA signs either Melo or James, and be less shocked if they sign them both.

  3. Reply TheLongTalk Jul 19, 2013 2:55 pm

    The thing you’re missing with Malone, Payton, Shaq, Moss, Rice, Gretzky, is that those guys were washed up. They might have played more and won more… Shaq won a ring with Miami… but they’d played all their best days already.

    I don’t know about A-Rod – seem to recall that was him still in his prime when he moved – but the rest of your examples had worn out their welcome and come to the end of their time.

    Payton was traded to the Bucks for Ray Allan, Malone was constantly fighting with management and wanted a ring in the worst way, Shaq was openly feuding with Kobe and the team made the right pick and went with the younger of their two stars. Moss and Rice were both past their primes. Gretzky was like Hakeem ending up on the Raptors or like Pierce ending up in Brooklyn… maybe a few great games left, more then a couple of good ones, but mostly down hill from here.

    A better example would be LeBron leaving Cleveland. That shocked a lot of people and he still had tons of good years in front of him. As an example it also shows LeBron’s willingness to leave a good team to become part of a great team.

    The only problem is right now Melo and LeBron are on good teams. Melo less then James – but that’s why I peg his odds at 30% and LBJ’s at 4.

    It would be incredibly damaging to both their reputations to leave town. Melo already forced his way to NY to then leave when they’ve done nothing but work towards building a winner would make him seem like a jerk.

    And LeBron leaving a team that’s won 2 titles in 3 years and has got to (right now) be the favorite for a 3rd title before the season has even started. What would the Lakers give him that Miami can’t?

    The Heat will be as wide open with cap space as the Lakers are (almost) and they’ll be the team that either won 3 of the last 4 titles or 2 of the last 4 (which is still 50% of the last 4)

    Perhaps a better prediction is the Melo will go join an old Wade, an aging Bosh, and a In His Prime James and they Big 4 will happen… TheLongTalk thinks that’s unlikely, but more likely then Melo and James going to LA.

  4. Reply Original6 Jul 19, 2013 5:40 pm

    TLT has made very valid points. A lot of those athletes and scenarios that I listed had guys in the last leg of their career. That being said, John Elway didn’t win his championships till the end of his career. Kurt Warner didn’t win his till after he retired from bagging groceries.

    One thing I seriously don’t understand is that in 2013 athletes don’t stay in cities for the same reason they did in the 80’s & 90’s. These guys go wherever their friends are playing. So, we can probably peg that Carmelo wouldn’t have a problem following LeBron wherever he goes. That being said, Miami has a total of three banners. That’s it. Greatest player to ever play there is currently playing there and could leave to go wherever next season.

    Carmelo is already looked at like a cry baby/punk so him leaving NYC wouldn’t damage his career. LeBron leaving wouldn’t have any more adverse of an effect as him leaving Cleveland did. In fact, I think him leaving Cleveland will never be topped no matter what he does. Miami fans are as worthless as used toilet paper and they wont be out burning his jersey’s like they did in Cleveland. They’d probably be at the club, bumping, fist pumping like their long lost oompa loompa cousins in NJ, wake up a few days later to realize that the big no longer play in Miami.

    The only thing Miami has over LA is Pat Riley. Speaking with Pat Riley is probably a lot like speaking with God. Just do what he tells you and things will work out for the best. In LA you have to deal with some idiot that is doing whatever he can to ruin his dad’s legacy.

    At the end of the day, we all know that only one thing repairs a reputation, and that’s a championship. It doesn’t matter if Melo changes teams 10 times, if he wins 2 or 3 rings people wont care. Same with Dwight, he better win rings or he’ll never have a good reputation.

    I’m not saying it’s going to happen, I’m just saying don’t be shocked if it does.

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